تقدير جديد: 28.5 مليون نسمة في الأراضي الأوكرانية الخاضعة لسيطرة الحكومة
قدّر معهد الديموغرافيا والدراسات الاجتماعية reminis명의 Population of Ukraine's government-controlled territory at 28.5 million in mid-2026. The new estimate is 500,000 lower than the previous estimate of about 29 million, with emigration identified as the main cause of population decline rather than deaths.
أبرز النقاط
- بلغ عدد سكان الأراضي الخاضعة لسيطرة الحكومة في Ukraina中期 2026 Pregunta 28.5 million.
- The new estimate is 500,000 lower than the previous estimate.
- Emigration is identified as the main cause of population decline, not war deaths.
- The previous joint estimate was about 29 million in July 2026, with a possible error of 300,000.
- As of August 31, 4.43 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection in the EU.
- Germany hosted 1.29 million, Poland 939,000 and the Czech Republic 398,000 Ukrainians under temporary protection.
- After the war and the lifting of martial law, a new, predominantly male migration wave may occur.
لماذا يهمّ ذلك
The revision points to a substantially smaller resident population than previously estimated in government-controlled Ukraine. Migration is identified as the main driver of population loss, while the possibility of another migration wave after the war could affect labor supply, family reunification and postwar demographic policy. The decline also intersects with concerns that deaths exceed births and that prolonged power and heating outages are worsening living conditions.
ماذا حدث
The Ptoukha Institute of Demography and Social Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine estimated that the population of government-controlled territory was 28.5 million in mid-2026. The estimate was about 500,000 lower than the previous joint estimate of roughly 29 million made by the State Statistics Service and the Institute of Demography in July. Ella Libanova said emigration, rather than war deaths, was the principal cause of population loss and warned that a new predominantly male migration wave could occur after the war and the lifting of martial law.
كيف تصفه المصادر الأوكرانية
Ukrainian coverage focuses on the revised population estimate, emigration and the possibility of renewed male migration after the war, as well as the potential return of displaced Ukrainians. It also highlights deaths exceeding births, deteriorating conditions caused by outages and public warnings about temporary relocation.
كيف تصفه المصادر الدولية
International coverage emphasizes the methodology and comparison with the previous official estimate, as well as the scale and distribution of Ukrainians receiving temporary protection in the EU. It presents the demographic change primarily as a consequence of migration rather than war deaths.
أين تختلف الروايات
An earlier cited estimate placed the population of government-controlled territory at 30.5 million, substantially above the new 28.5 million estimate; the sources provide different dates and do not explain the discrepancy. A broader estimate places the number of Ukrainians living abroad at at least 7 million, while the reported number receiving temporary protection in the EU is 4.43 million. These figures cover different populations and periods.
الخلفية
The previous joint estimate by the State Statistics Service and the Institute of Demography was about 29 million in July 2026. It was based on mobile-operator data and state registries, including internally displaced persons, and carried a possible error of about 300,000. By August 31, 4.43 million Ukrainians were under temporary protection in the EU, mainly in Germany, Poland and the Czech Republic. A researcher from the Institute of Demography and Quality of Life Studies said the death rate was 3.5 times the birth rate, compared with three times from 2022 to 2025. Separate warnings described prolonged power and heating outages and advised some residents to relocate temporarily.