المSapience Ukrainians Disrupt 15 of Russia’s Largest Oil Refineries, Reducing Capacity by 55.4%
According to Ukrainian intelligence, 15 of Russia’s 38 major oil refineries were out of operation by the end of September 2026, while 12 more reduced their output. Overall refining volumes at these facilities fell by 55.4% from the beginning of the year. Remote refineries are temporarily easing Russia’s fuel shortage, but transport constraints and limited capacity make full compensation difficult.
أبرز النقاط
- 15 of Russia’s 38 major oil refineries were out of operation by late September 2026, and 12 reduced refining volumes.
- Refining output across the 38 major facilities fell by 55.4% from the beginning of 2026.
- Five damaged plants account for about 33% of Russia’s total oil-refining capacity.
- Six remote refineries processed 906,000 barrels per day in September 2026, or about 24% of the national total.
- Remote-refinery output was 147,000 barrels per day higher than at the beginning of 2026.
- Ukrainian strikes caused reported losses of more than $23.2 billion, compared with $26.6 billion in Russian oil-industry revenue in 2025.
- Replacing damaged equipment could cost Russia more than $20 billion, while refining at remote plants may decline in 2027.
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The disruption is weakening Russia’s ability to supply its domestic fuel market and meet export obligations at the same time. Five affected plants alone account for roughly 33% of national refining capacity, while the estimated damage of more than $23.2 billion is almost comparable with the oil industry’s reported $26.6 billion revenue in 2025. Remote refineries offer only a limited and temporary substitute because of their location, shortages of railway rolling stock and road tankers, and the high cost of replacing damaged equipment.
ماذا حدث
Ukrainian intelligence reported that by the end of September 2026, 15 of Russia’s 38 major oil refineries had been taken out of operation and another 12 had reduced their output. Combined refining volumes at the 38 facilities declined by 55.4% from the beginning of the year. The affected plants include Slavneft-YANOS, Kirshineftegasintez, Ryazan Oil Refining Company, Gazprom Neft-Moscow Refinery and Lukoil-Permnefteorgsintez, which together represented about 33% of Russia’s refining capacity.
Six refineries in remote regions continued operating, processing 906,000 barrels per day in September. Their output was 147,000 barrels per day higher than at the beginning of the year and accounted for approximately 24% of all Russian refining. This allowed the Kremlin to temporarily offset part of the fuel deficit, but Russia still cannot fully meet domestic demand while fulfilling export obligations. Deliveries from remote refineries are also constrained by shortages of railway rolling stock and road tankers. Separately, a Russian presidential decree dated September 28, 2026, restricted access to information on refining volumes, making independent monitoring more difficult.
كيف تصفه المصادر الأوكرانية
Ukrainian sources attribute the loss of refining capacity and the associated economic damage to strikes by Ukraine’s Defence Forces on Russian oil-sector facilities. Their focus is on the scale of the shutdowns, the 55.4% decline in refining, shortages of transport infrastructure and Russia’s reduced ability to meet domestic and export commitments. They also present the decree limiting access to refinery data as an obstacle to independent monitoring and as a factor that may spread inaccurate information.
الخلفية
Six remote refineries operating in September 2026 processed 906,000 barrels of oil per day, about 24% of Russia’s total refining, temporarily helping offset the fuel shortage. Russia has also begun importing fuel from other countries through “grey schemes” that circumvent international sanctions. Repairs and maintenance of damaged facilities are complicated by sanctions and the high cost of necessary equipment.