{main intelligence: Russia operates close to maximum arms production capacity
Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence assesses that Russia is operating close to maximum arms-production capacity, producing about 110 ballistic missiles per month. Russian industry can also supply up to 15 Su-34 aircraft and 12 Su-35C fighters annually, but remains dependent on imported components and sanctions evasion. Ukraine's estimates also indicate uneven production and repair capabilities across aircraft types.
أبرز النقاط
- Russia produces about 110 ballistic missiles per month, according to Ukrainian intelligence.
- Russia's military may launch up to 100 ballistic missiles per month.
- Russian industry can supply up to 15 Su-34 aircraft and 12 Su-35C fighters annually.
- At the end of 2025, Ukraine estimated Russia had about 125 Su-34s, 135–140 Su-35Cs and about 20 Su-57s.
- Russia relies on imported electronics, modern optics and other Western components obtained through grey imports and smuggling.
- Russia is not serially producing new Su-24M, Tu-22M3 or Tu-95MS aircraft and is repairing existing aircraft of these types.
- 22 of the 79 enterprises involved in Su-35C production are not subject to sanctions by any sanctions-coalition country.
لماذا يهمّ ذلك
Russia's high production capacity may support continued replenishment of its armed forces. At the same time, reliance on imported components and sanctions evasion indicate that production remains exposed to supply-chain constraints. Capabilities also differ by aircraft type, affecting how many combat-ready aircraft are available. The Su-35C supply chain includes numerous enterprises, some of which remain outside the sanctions imposed by participating countries.
ماذا حدث
The Main Directorate of Intelligence assessed that Russia is working close to its maximum arms-production capacity. Representative Andriy Yusov said Russia produces about 110 ballistic missiles per month, while its military may launch up to 100. Ukrainian estimates put annual deliveries at up to 15 Su-34s and 12 Su-35C fighters. At the end of 2025, Ukraine assessed that Russia had about 125 Su-34s, 135–140 Su-35Cs and about 20 Su-57s. Russia does not serially produce new Su-24M, Tu-22M3 or Tu-95MS aircraft, and instead repairs existing aircraft of these types. The production chain for the Su-35C involves 79 enterprises, 22 of which are not covered by sanctions from any sanctions-coalition country. Russia also remains dependent on foreign components, including imported electronics, modern optics and other Western-made parts, which Moscow obtains through grey imports and smuggling in circumvention of sanctions.
كيف تصفه المصادر الأوكرانية
Ukrainian reporting emphasizes the Main Directorate of Intelligence's assessment that Russia is close to maximum arms-production capacity. The coverage highlights sustained ballistic-missile output, continued production and repair of selected aircraft types, and reliance on foreign components obtained through imports and smuggling. It also draws attention to the losses suffered at Borisoglebsk airport and the reported readiness of the struck Su-34 aircraft for further strikes.
أين تختلف الروايات
Sources differ in their account of the number of Su-34 aircraft struck at Borisoglebsk airport. One account says six Su-34M were hit, while another says four were destroyed and two damaged.
الخلفية
Ukrainian intelligence reported that Russia produces about 110 ballistic missiles per month, while its military may launch up to 100 per month. At the end of 2025, Ukraine estimated that Russia had about 125 Su-34s, 135–140 Su-35Cs and about 20 Su-57s. The reported stock of 140–145 Su-30M2, Su-30SM and Su-30SM2 aircraft represented the total fleet, not the number ready for combat missions. Russia was not serially producing new Su-24M, Tu-22M3 or Tu-95MS aircraft and was only repairing existing aircraft of these types. Reported Su-34 deliveries were eight aircraft in 2022, 11 in 2023 and 12–14 in 2024.