الUkrainian hryvniacurrency hits a historic low against the dollar as the central bank steps up intervention
On 4 November 2026, the National Bank of Ukraine set the official dollar exchange rate at 45.6660 hryvnias per dollar, up 13 kopecks in one day and the highest level since the hryvnia was floated. The central bank sold more than $6 billion during October, including a record $1.818 billion in the final week of the month.
أبرز النقاط
- The official dollar rate reached 45.6660 hryvnias per dollar on 4 November, up 13 kopecks in one day.
- The euro exchange rate was set at 51.06 hryvnias per euro, up 1 kopeck.
- The official dollar rate rose from 45.0802 hryvnias on 14 October to 45.6660 on 4 November.
- The National Bank sold more than $6 billion on the interbank market during October.
- Interventions reached a record $1.818 billion in the final week of October.
- The black-market dollar rate reached 47.50 hryvnias in late October, while the white-market rate reached 47.00.
- PrivatBank bought dollars at 45.50 hryvnias and sold them at 46.10 on 4 November.
لماذا يهمّ ذلك
The historic low of the hryvnia reflects substantial pressure on Ukraine's currency market and increased volatility. The scale of the National Bank's interventions points to strong demand for foreign currency, while a widening trade deficit and high import demand may add further pressure. As the dollar appreciates, the returns on long-term hryvnia deposits and domestic government bonds are also becoming less attractive to investors.
ماذا حدث
The hryvnia fell to a record low against the dollar after sustained currency-market volatility. The National Bank of Ukraine sold more than $6 billion on the interbank market during October, with interventions reaching a record $1.818 billion in the final week. Businesses were buying substantially more foreign currency than they were selling, while rapid growth in budget spending contributed to sharp fluctuations at the end of 3 November and the beginning of 4 November. After the gap between the official rate and banks' retail selling rates widened, the central bank announced operations exchanging banks' cashless foreign currency for cash to replenish their cash holdings. It said it had satisfied banks' requests in full and saw no economic reasons for a further widening of that gap. The National Bank also assured the public that it had sufficient international reserves to smooth currency fluctuations.
كيف تصفه المصادر الأوكرانية
Ukrainian reporting focuses on the National Bank's interventions, official and unofficial exchange rates, and the immediate effects of depreciation on domestic markets. It also highlights the trade deficit, import demand, budget spending, banks' cash liquidity and the outlook for savings denominated in hryvnias.
الخلفية
Ukraine's trade deficit was reported at $44 billion in the previous year. Estimates cited by analysts put the current year's deficit at more than $70 billion and the following year's at approximately $80 billion. Analysts also estimated that slightly less than half of the import flow goes directly to retail rather than to weapons or generators for the front. KSE Institute projected average annual dollar rates of 44.5 hryvnias in 2026, 47.8 in 2027, 50.6 in 2028 and 51 in 2029.