Ukrainian Economy Ministry prepares to further lower 2026 GDP growth forecast

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The revision points to a further weakening of Ukraine’s economy amid war-related disruption, blocked ports and deteriorating business conditions. The growth forecast has fallen substantially from the 2.4% rate used when the 2026 state budget was approved. At the same time, shelling damage and a major shortfall in budget revenue are increasing pressure on both the economy and public finances, with losses spreading from energy to other sectors.

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During the Kyiv International Economic Forum, Economy and Environment Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko said the ministry was preparing to lower its 2026 GDP growth forecast again. The June estimate of 1.6% had already been reduced from 2.4%. The ministry’s preliminary assessment puts the possible new figure 1–1.5 percentage points below the June estimate, but no final number has been set.

Kravchenko identified the blockage of Ukrainian seaports, increased intensity of Russian shelling and the partial postponement of capital budget spending to the end of the year as causes of the deterioration. He put current losses from shelling at about $8 billion and expected them to reach $10 billion by the end of 2026. Most of the losses in the first half of the year affected energy, but damage is now expected across all economic sectors.

The fiscal consequences are also growing. State budget revenue fell 50 billion hryvnias short of plan over the first nine months of 2026, with 32 billion hryvnias of that shortfall recorded in August and September alone. State statistics also revised second-quarter GDP growth down from 0.6% to 0.4%, following a 0.6% year-on-year contraction in the first quarter.

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Ukrainian reporting focuses on the Economy Ministry’s further downgrade, the reasons behind it, the scale of damage caused by shelling and the resulting shortfall in state revenue. Particular attention is paid to the effects on public finances and the spread of losses from the energy sector to the rest of the economy. The main sources of the assessment are officials and the Economy Ministry.

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International institutional forecasts provide context for the worsening outlook. In late July, the National Bank raised its 2026 real GDP growth forecast to 1.8%, but on September 17 it lowered the range to 1.1–1.2%. In June and July, the IMF reduced its forecast to 1.0–1.6%, while the EBRD warned on October 2 that Ukraine’s GDP could fall further. The available coverage is Ukrainian and does not provide a separate international-source perspective on the ministry’s announcement.

أين تختلف الروايات

There is no agreement on the likely 2026 growth rate. The Economy Ministry’s June forecast was 1.6%, while other institutional estimates and scenarios range from about 0.5% to 1.8%. The ministry has not determined the final figure in its revised forecast.

الخلفية

The Economy Ministry first reduced its 2026 growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.6% in June and is now considering another downward revision. Before the ministry’s June change, the 2.4% rate had been used in the approved 2026 state budget. State statistics later revised second-quarter GDP growth down from 0.6% to 0.4%, while first-quarter real GDP contracted by 0.6% compared with the same period of 2025.